Mr. Powell seems to be getting the market more comfortable with higher rates.
This is a big shift that has taken months of yes, no, maybe, yes, just a little, no not yet, ok maybe… I think we are ready.
Take a look at the weekly TLT chart.
If you say the next 6-month move in the TLT is down, then I would be careful holding “fantasy” stocks.
I think that chart says down. What do you think?
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY
1. Do You See What I See HERE?
2. Big Level in THIS stock. Now What?
3. Over 1,000% in a few hours!!!
Let’s get started...
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY DKNG STOCK
Do You See What I See HERE?
I’ve been vocal about this stock being overvalued… for a while!
Frankly, I try not to look at this stock anymore because it’s a painful reminder of the ol’ saying that stocks can remain overvalued longer than you can stay solvent.
But take a look at this chart formation and tell me you don’t see what I see:
What Does the DKNG Stock Chart Say?
That top in October 2020, the high in March, and then the rebound in September matching the highs from last year forms a Head & Shoulders pattern.
Those are usually seen around tops. If it is one, they don’t end pretty.
The neckline is around that $43 level.
I don’t even want to say where the bottom would point to. That would make me sound crazy.
But the options flow appears to tell us that someone else sees the downside risk.
Options Activity in DKNG Stock
There is unusual options activity in the October 22nd expiration. Someone sold 3,000 of the $58 Calls at $0.45 and then bought 3,000 $50-40 Put Spreads for $2.75, paying a net price of $2.30.
Comparing the options volume vs open interest indicates these are opening transactions.
The buyer is clearly protecting a move towards that neckline.
Keep in mind, interest rates are now going higher. These high price to sales stocks, no matter how good the story, tend to not perform as well in this type of environment.
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY AMD STOCK
Big Level in THIS stock. Now What?
Analysts like the name, BAC called it a “best of breed” yesterday.
The stock has had a major surge in share price, volumes, and options activity over the last couple of months.
But now we are approaching that breakout level. Remember, the one we thought we would buy when we missed it the first time.
“If it could just come back.”
What Does the AMD Stock Chart Say?
The market overtook that $99 resistance level in AMC Stock back in late-July on huge share volume and options volume. AMC stock surged from $84 to $122 in 2.5 weeks.
Since then, the stock has been digesting the move.
2 weeks ago it reached $99, which is now support, and quickly bounced to $108 where it met resistance near a downtrend line.
I don’t particularly like that it immediately wants to re-test support. A break down through $99 in AMC stock can quickly move prices toward the 200dma at $90.
Option flows are mixed.
Options Activity in AMD Stock
There’s unusual options activity in AMD stock across the next few weekly expirations.
While the fast money came in to buy this week calls looking for a bounce this morning, the more methodical position players are selling their upside calls.
The AMD October 15th $110 Calls were sold 14,000x (and counting). When comparing the options volume vs open interest, it appears that these have been sold to close.
Does AMD stock bounce again or break down?
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY DLTR STOCK
DLTR Explodes on Good News
Dollar Tree is exploding higher today on an announcement that they are not just raising prices, but they are also raising their buyback buy over a billion dollars from $1.05 Bn to $2.5 Bn.
“Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR), today announced that, based on positive customer reaction and the success of its new Combo and Dollar Tree Plus store formats, the Company plans to begin adding new price points above $1 across all Dollar Tree Plus stores and will begin testing additional price points above $1 in selected legacy Dollar Tree stores.”
This helps alleviate the disastrous decline after the last earnings call.
What Does the DLTR Stock Chart Say?
Over the last 15 months, DLTR stock has been trading between $85 and $120.
Just this week the stock was finding much needed support at the $85 level after breaking the $97.5 support on the earnings announcement.
Today’s price raise and increased buyback is trying to negate that move.
Options Activity in DLTR Stock
While there is call buying across all expirations, the unusual options activity in DLTR popped up right out of the gates in the weekly $100 Calls. They opened at $0.18 and then traded up to $2.28.
That’s 1,167% return in a few hours!
Not bad.
If you don’t follow these names, I thought this was a good intro video to get started… “How Dollar Stores Really Make Their Money.”
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Best,
Felix
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