So, the market is down because the economic news is bad and interest rate hikes are coming.
The market fears raising interest rates into a “recession” = a policy error.
But the economic numbers are bad because government policy made it bad.
The Omicron scare slowed everything down.
No Omicron and the economic numbers would be fine.
That’s different than the economy is slowing down on its own.
Now that Omicron is not what we thought and government policy on the virus loosens (maybe), then numbers should not be as bleak.
In general, high volatility like we’re seeing is NOT what the Fed wants.
Historically, they want orderly movement... that's their mandate - "orderly markets."
At the end of the day, the market has stretched the expected interest rate adjustments very high and lowered the economic numbers to very low expectations.
The Fed gets to tell us on Wednesday if that’s correct and to what extent.
I suspect the Fed will say that they need more information to decide on whether the “Omicron” numbers are the real numbers going forward or not.
“More information” equals more time which likely narrows those expectations of interest rates and economic estimates... which in turn would give the market some relief.
That said…
Since the whole market is acting Unusual, I thought today we could look at a few charts to give you some perspective.
Let’s get started...
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY SPY STOCK
SPY
Through the 50 and 200dma in 10 days.
Down 12% from the highs on January 4th.
Another Megaphone? – Wow!
The Fed speaks Wednesday.
5% down is close to $400... 5% up is close to $448.What Does the SPY Stock Chart Say?
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY F STOCK
F
Down 30% in 6 days.
Below the 50dma but well above the 200dma.
F is back into the flag.
There' s technical damage but the stock likely finds a range around here.
What Does the F Stock Chart Say?
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY NVDA STOCK
NVDA
NVDA stock down 30% for the year.
February $180 Puts are active... but that’s a tough buy here.
The stock is through the 50 and 200dma.
It's not a bad spot to take a stab at the stock.
What Does the NVDA Stock Chart Say?
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY PLTR STOCK
PLTR
PLTR stock is under tremendous pressure.
Institutional Put buying continues.
The stock volume is not high which suggests retail holders are holding.
That makes it more dangerous as the bears press.
What Does the PLTR Stock Chart Say?
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY ARKK STOCK
ARKK
Look at the volumes on the chart with the stock puking.
There's also massive put buying in February and March.
Investors are jumping off the ARKK train.
It’s likely that it doesn’t go to $0 (although I am not sure right now).
So, I would expect 20-30% fluctuations up and down.
I would not be surprised to see $90 (soon) on a massive cover.
What Does the ARKK Stock Chart Say?
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Best,
Felix
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