Before today, the S&P500 has been down 2 in the last 18 days.
That chart tells us that since 2000, there’s been 2x where the S&P500 has been down 3x in 17 days.
This means we are in uncharted waters.
And that still doesn’t mean we will go down.
I found this online…
“The longest recorded streak of one color in roulette in American casino history happened in 1943 when the color red won 32 consecutive times. In a row. The people convinced black had to hit next were absolutely right. Eventually.”
Be careful out there.
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY
1. Incredible Move… Do You Chase?
2. BLNK Earnings This Week… Expect This
3. FCX at the Center of 2 Opposing Forces
Let’s get started...
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY AMD STOCK
Incredible Move… Do You Chase?
AMD announced a huge win at its Accelerated Data Center Premiere – Meta (formerly FB) and the metaverse is a new AMD customer.
The stock was already up in anticipation of the event. This just took it over the edge… It’s soaring!
What Does the AMD Stock Chart Say?
After bouncing several times off of $72.50, AMD stock has taken off… and that’s putting it mildly.
It took 2 months to go from $72.50 to $122.50. Another two months to hit $100. Then 6 weeks to head back toward $150.
That’s incredible volatility for a big cap name.
You can see I drew the dotted line that matches the $50 push from $72.50. See how “easy” that was to see?
(Lol j/k... Easy to see, but people might call you crazy if you say it out loud).
AMD stock is likely to make a pit stop somewhere near $150.
Options Activity in AMD Stock
The options flow in AMD today was bullish right out of the gate. Over 350,000 options came in to buy. I suspect 348,000 will likely come out for sale by Friday.
That’s how this crowd rolls. Run over anyone trying to short, then move on to the next name.
If you want to own AMD, I think you need to be patient here.
Chasing with stock would be tough.
Chasing with options here is likely giving you worse odds than flipping a coin.
Nibbling in the $122.50 - $127.50 range makes sense to me.
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY BLNK STOCK
BLNK Earnings This Week… Expect This
If EVs will rule the world, charging stations need to be right behind them. Makes perfect sense. And BLNK is in the middle of that conversation.
So, it’s no surprise that the stock is bid today behind the infrastructure deal as there is $7.5Bn dollars set aside to build out a national network.
Valuation is a concern, but who cares about that anyways.
Here’s the chart.
What Does the BLNK Stock Chart Say?
BLNK stock is smack in the middle of its 8-month range between $26 and $45.
It has recaptured the 50-dma and is trying to take back the 200dma today.
I think it’s hard to call from either end here. It’s easier to say it’s going to $65 if it breaks $45, or $10 if it breaks $26.
As someone who doesn’t like to take too many bites at the “fantasy” fruit, I look at where the volume is in the stock.
The stock exploded on huge volume from $10 to $35 in November-December last year.
The Bears are aiming to push those buyers out. They first need to break $26.
Options Activity in BLNK Stock
There is unusual options activity in BLNK front-week options as earnings are due on November 11th. I thought that I would help you read what the options market is saying.
First, on the top right-hand corner you can see that the blue line is closer to the Bull side. This indicates that Call options are better bid, which further means that the market is looking for upside leverage. You might notice we also see Call buying in those $40 and $41 Calls.
Second, we can take the BLNK $35 straddle (Puts + Calls) at $5.50 and multiply it by 1.25. This gets us the boundaries where the stock is expected to land inside of 68% of the time. Those boundaries would be $28.12 and $41.88.
Or, even easier, you can look at the Risk Reward Breakeven Prices near the middle of the unshaded area to give you a good idea of what the market is expecting.
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY FCX STOCK
FCX at the Center of 2 Opposing Forces
Infrastructure stocks are doing well today behind the $1T bill signed over the weekend.
Copper, and thus FCX, should be winner with this bill.
The issue is whether China’s $70Tn real estate problems and a slowdown in their building plans will keep a lid on copper prices or, dare I say, push them lower.The chart looks neutral to positive.
What Does the FCX Stock Chart Say?
After a sharp move higher from $24 at the start of the year to a $46 high in May, FCX stock has been digesting the move between $30 and $40 over the last 6 months.
The stock is above the 50 and 200dma. And I like that the 50 and 200dma has converged since earlier this year.
There’s also a mini-flag setting up over the last 8 weeks.
The Bulls must be pleased with the developments.
The Bears will point to the low volume, a telegraphed infrastructure deal, and noting that China has been a better seller of commodities lately.
Options Activity in FCX Stock
There’s unusual options activity in FCX December options. It appears like someone is rolling up their hedges.
There was a closing seller of 20,000 FCX December 17th $38 Puts and a closing buyer of 10,000 FCX December 17th $33 Puts.
Then there was an opening of 10,000 FCX December 17th $40-$35 Put Spreads.
Considering the stock is higher on good news, I suspect this is a holder of stock simply trying to protect some gains with rising macro risk here.
A clear break through $40 can see the highs very quickly.
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