Unusual Options Activity in F stock, OXY stock and MSFT

January 4, 2022

UOA Trade Idea CCJ 090221

At Winning Picks Premium, we’ve been long CCJ off and on for 2.5 years. I’ve been saying this for a while…

Uranium is the only (practical) clean source of energy that could power the Clean Energy movement.

The powers-at-be can’t publicly say that because “Nuclear Energy” gets the environmentalist crowd up in arms.

So, they start on the Clean Energy revolution knowing that once it starts the environmental crowd will either agree with “Nuclear” or freeze.

They choose “Nuclear.”

Here are today’s TOP3…


1. Big Tech is Weak… This trade is up 600%!

2. This EV Company is Exploding Higher, But What Now?

3. The Most Explosive Oil Stock on the Board

Find your own ideas with the Unusual Options Activity Scanner

Let’s get started...


Big Tech Weak… This trade is up 600%!

I want to circle back to the MSFT idea I showed you HERE. These were the details of the “1x2 Put Spread” trade:

Buy 1 MSFT January 21st $340 P
Sell 2 MSFT January 21st $320 P
Net-Net = You pay $1.
Breakeven = $301.

You profit between $301 and $339. If it lands at $320, this trade is worth $20. Below $301, you lose $1 for $1 on 100 shares.

The trade has exploded with time. It is now $7, or up 600%!!

What Does the MSFT Stock Chart Say?

MSFT Chart - Options Activity 010422

MSFT stock has been under pressure since last week. It’s down 2% today.

Today, the stock dropped below the 50 dma and it’s a long way down to the 200dma.

But it should find some support at the $317 level, and more at the previous breakout level near $305.

Resistance is at $345 with acknowledgement that $350 is the high. It looks like a triple top.

This is a situation that would surely attract the Bears. They will likely lean on the 50dma and target $317 first.

Bulls need to be thinking a little longer term here if that 50dma starts turning lower. You could see a range bound trade in MSFT until the fall.

Btw, THIS 1x2 Call Spread worked out pretty good as well. Up +500%!!!!

Options Activity in MSFT Stock

Unusual Options Activity Scanner MSFT 010422

That’s not stopping the “buy the dip” crowd. The Calls are outpacing puts 2 to 1 today. The activity is concentrated in the front few weeks.

Implied Volatilities are higher, and the MSFT January 21st $325 Straddle is more than $13, which makes the breakevens $312 and $338 over the next 12 trading days. Without a quick move back up towards the 50dma in the next 24 hours, it will be hard to beat that.

Unless, you are playing a day trade, I would stay away from these shorter-dated calls in MSFT. 

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This EV Company is Exploding Higher, But What Now?

Unusual Options Activity F 010421

With orders through the roof, F announced that they were raising capacity… doubling it to 150,000 trucks per year!

Here’s the video with Ford President of the Americas Kumar Galhotra.

The increase is a positive sign of demand for the F-150 Lightning as well as electric vehicles in general but also shows Ford significantly underestimated demand for the truck, causing it to now scramble to boost manufacturing of it. This is the second time Ford has said it plans to double production of the vehicle, which is due out in the spring. Initial output was set for about 40,000 units. “The reception of this vehicle has been absolutely incredible”

The stock is on a tear.

What Does the F Stock Chart Say?

F Chart - Options Activity 010422

What’s the lesson you’re seeing in F stock?

It doesn’t matter if a stock rises sharply higher. That doesn’t mean it has to revert back down.

In fact, if it holds those higher levels, then it’s more likely that the stock makes another move higher.
F stock closed at new highs yesterday and is screaming higher today.

How high will it go?

No idea, but don’t think it’s an easy short back to $21.50.

If you want to short F, then a better place to short the stock is below $21.50 because that would signal that there is trouble at the higher levels.

Options Activity in F Stock

Unusual Options Activity Scanner F 010422

As you can imagine, call options are outpacing put options 4 to 1 today. Over 650,000 contracts have traded in options expiring this week.

Implied Volatilities are screaming higher on the back of this Call buying.

Feels a bit like a gamma squeeze here, which means it is hard to buy F stock and just as hard to sell it.

You have the CES 2022 show starting tomorrow.

Take a look at GM.

They are showcasing the Silverado EV to get rolling on their new Ultium platform. Is it time for the big investors to switch from F to GM?

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The Most Explosive Oil Stock on the Board

Unusual Options Activity OXY 092721

As the Omicron scare diminishes, oil has made a comeback. Prior to the OPEC meeting today, it was confirmed that they would increase oil production by 400,000 barrels a day. Here’s the issue:

“Yet OPEC may struggle to increase production by the planned amount. The International Energy Agency noted last month that the group had missed its production targets in October and November due to the capacity constraints of some its members, such as Nigeria. Furthermore, production in Libya has been affected by civil unrest and pipeline maintenance problems, noted Capital Economics’ Caroline Bain. That in itself will more than offset the cartel’s output increase, she wrote.”

Supply constraints in oil while demand comes back?

$100 may not be too far away.

Keep an eye on OXY. It’s leveraged to oil in a BIG way.

What Does the OXY Stock Chart Say?

OXY Chart - Options Activity 010422

OXY stock could easily get to the $40s with oil moving higher.

But it needs to get through $35 first. This was the low in 2019 and the recent high in October.

And that likely needs a move in oil back through $80.

The stock is up significantly today as it recaptures the 50dma.

The MACD has also turned up in positive territory.

Volume is good.

Bears are pointing to Omicron saying: “We are not out of the woods yet. Remember China?”

Options Activity in OXY Stock

Unusual Options Activity Scanner OXY 010422

You are starting to see upside OXY Call buying in the near-term options. They are obviously playing a $35 break higher.

If you are interested in playing OXY, I would concentrate on the March options. This would get you a good look at most of the first quarter (hopefully) and after the Omicron-peak. You also get the earnings announcement at the end of February.

You can see the Open Interest in the March 18th $35 Calls. That was a buyer who paid higher levels. The RR$ was in the mid $40s at the time.

A good exercise is to compare the OXY chart to competitors like XOM and CVX. Those stocks have recouped their Pre-Covid levels and working on making new highs. OXY has much more debt, which is a negative… unless oil goes up. Then it’s a HUGE positive!

$80+ oil into earnings and OXY could trade $40+.

Click here if you need more options trading picks with in-depth analysis.

Now go make some money!



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