All you hear about is how volatile the markets have been.
You see that the implied volatility in the options are up, which means the options cost more.
But take a look at the SPY.
While there is a lot of day-to-day volatility, the market hasn't moved that much in 6 weeks. We are bouncing around a $462 pivot level like a ping pong ball.
Sure, there are some sectors/stocks getting walloped, but sometimes it's good to take a step back and look at the big picture.
We are 1% off the highs.
We know about the supply chain issues.
We know about the coming inflation.
We know about Powell raising rates 1,2, maybe 3 times next year.
We are dealing with Omicron.
And one more time, we are 1% off the highs.
What happens if we get some good news somewhere?
Remember, it's 5D Chess... Not checkers.
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY
1. THIS Stock Fought GOOGL and Won?
2. Time for a Hedge HERE?
3. SNAP Getting Back on Track
Find your own ideas with the Unusual Options Activity Scanner
Let’s get started...
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY ROKU STOCK
THIS Stock Fought GOOGL and Won?
ROKU and Google struck a multi-year agreement to keep YouTube and YouTube TV on ROKU’s streaming platform.
The struggle/negotiation was over advertising revenue. ROKU wanted a percentage. Google, being Google, wanted first row seating:
“Roku claimed Google required it to preference YouTube content over that of other providers in the company’s search results.”
This caught the attention of Congress, which over the long-term is probably not worth it for Google.
Is ROKU back?!
What Does the ROKU Stock Chart Say?
Two days ago, ROKU stock was breaking $200 and down almost 60% from the $490 highs in late-July. It has not been pretty to say the least.
The break of the 50 and the 200dma proved to be too much weight for the stock.
Last Month, ROKU broke support at the $295 level on significant volume. This is the level you want to watch.
The 50dma is $285 and declining.
The Bears will likely press in the $285-295 range.
If you consider the near-term range of $200 - $295, then $248 is right in the middle.
Options Activity in ROKU Stock
ROKU Call options are trading 4 to 1 vs the Put Options today, with implied volatility up across the board. Most of the unusual options activity in ROKU is in the weekly options. More than 50,000 ROKU December 10th $250 Calls traded today. The average price is about $4.45.
The RR$ is $262.11. That’s possible, but even a minor pullback will really hurt these options. 50,000 options equal 5 million shares of ROKU, which is a lot for the stock.
What do you think?
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY AAPL STOCK
Time for a Hedge HERE?
AAPL stock is incredibly strong reaching an all-time high and closing in on a $3T market capitalization. Wow!
With Morgan Stanley raising their price target to $200 yesterday, UBS wanted to remind everyone today that they are long too.
UBS reiterates its Buy rating on AAPL saying:
“Compared to last year, wait time or days until available remain elevated for the highest priced iPhone 13 Pro Max in all of the key regions including the US, China, Japan and key markets in Europe. Although we are beginning to see modest improvement in availability on a week-to-week basis in most of the regions, specifically in the US, availability in China shows no signs of improvement.”
At this point, what takes AAPL down?
Or maybe the question is why can’t it go higher?
What Does the AAPL Stock Chart Say?
AAPL stock is hard to fight. It’s not recommended.
The stock is firmly above the 50 and 200dma. Both averages are pointing higher and the spread between the two is not even that wide relative to past moves.
The stock is zig-zagging its way up hurting anyone trying to short it.
Support levels are $137.50 and $157.50.
I like symmetry, so I would watch for a stop sign at $177.50.
In 1-month, AAPL has added almost half a Trillion dollars in market capitalization.
That’s just "Wow!" (again)
Options Activity in AAPL Stock
AAPL options are dominating the option flows today. Over 2.5 million options have traded today, multiples higher than other names. Call Options are trading 4 to 1 vs the Put Options.
The front week options have traded over 1 million options today.
The Options flow is being bought and sold across most strikes within $10.
For those long holders looking to lock in some of this move, the following trade looks interesting:
Sell 1 AAPL January 21st $185 Call $3.11 … and
Buy 1 AAPL January 21st $170 Put $4.94
Sell 1 AAPL January 21st $155 Put $1.50
Net cost ~ $0.33.
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UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY SNAP STOCK
SNAP Getting Back on Track
Speaking of AAPL…
Apparently, they loosened up the reins with advertisers. The FT had an article out saying:
“Apple has allowed app developers to collect data from its 1bn iPhone users for targeted advertising, in an unacknowledged shift that lets companies follow a much looser interpretation of its controversial privacy policy.”
This is good news for companies like SNAP.
Over the last couple of days, the stock has woken up.
What Does the SNAP Stock Chart Say?
With this recent bounce, SNAP stock has confirmed $47.50 as good support that we saw earlier this year. It looks like the long-term holders see value there.
The worry for bulls should be the amount of damage that was caused on the last earnings report.
SNAP stock is under the 50 and 200dma. Both averages have turned lower and the 50 has crossed the 200 to the downside.
In addition, there are a significant number of investors trapped above $70.
So, to quickly race higher, I suspect SNAP will need a good earnings report or a buyout.
If the next earnings proves that it was just a blip, then the stock should have no trouble getting back to the $70 level.
I am sure the Bears will try to press against the $57.50-$60 range until SNAP proves it belongs any higher.
Options Activity in SNAP Stock
While total option volumes are down across the board, momentum is still alive in names that are moving. With SNAP up 8% today, traders are flocking to the weekly options.
And that sometimes works…
The SNAP December 10th $52 Calls opened near $0.40-$0.50 this morning. By mid-day they are $3.00, for a 500% winner!
The crowd didn’t stop there, though.
The SNAP December 10th $55 Calls opened near $0.08 this morning. By mid-day these are changing hands at $0.91. That’s just a 1,000% winner if you are keeping score.
You gotta love momentum when it works!
By the way, SNAP is ~$80Bn.
AAPL made that in 2 days.
Bull markets don’t end until the big boys start buying stuff.
Just saying.
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Now go make some money!
Best,
Felix
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