When I first started on Wall Street, I was a sponge on the trading floor.
I would ask a million questions.
One morning a big trader on the floor was reading the Wall Street Journal.
I asked him, "What sections do you read first?"
"I always start right here," as he pointing to the bond section.
When I asked why, the answer was simple...
Bonds move the market.
So, I had to laugh when I heard Stanley Druckenmiller announce today:
“What I find so exciting about yesterday is if the Fed now behaves as Chairman [Jerome] Powell suggested they will in the months ahead, we can now heed the message of the bond market again no matter what it may be."
Start listening to the bonds.
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY
1. Where’s the Floor in TWTR?
2. Did Ackman Buy the Bottom in NFLX?
3. TSLA Chart Looks Weak. Buy at THIS Level.
Let’s get started...
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY TWTR STOCK
Where’s the Floor in TWTR?
The big reveal on this quarter’s social media earnings will be advertising spend. Sentiment is very poor. Just last week Barcley’s stated:
"We are increasingly concerned these flagship names (Google, Meta, etc.) may disappoint looking ahead based on the massive penetration gains that digital advertising has realized in the past 18 months."
This would not bode well for TWTR.
But the stock is reflecting that already. The question is…
Is it worse than even these lowered expectations?
What Does the TWTR Stock Chart Say?
TWTR stock is down almost 60% from its highs and about 50% in the last 3 months.
It’s hard to recreate another TWTR although the Trump-backed “Truth Social” is going to give it a try.
The stock is firmly below both moving averages and it has some decent resistance above near $40 and $48.
Consider that we are back to July August prices of 2020 now where there were some big volume days.
Bears will press until someone pushes back, and they obviously haven’t for a while.
Put buyers are back in the options market.
Options Activity in TWTR Stock
There’s put activity in February and June. The TWTR February Puts look interesting as someone bought 14,000 TWTR February $33 Puts for $1.92.
The RR$ there is $28.29, or almost 20% lower.
Earnings are due out on February 10th.
At some point, these social media names (TWTR, SNAP, PINS) become interesting to the giants as strategic assets.I must imagine they are considering what it would cost them.
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY NFLX STOCK
Did Ackman Buy the Bottom in NFLX?
Bill Ackman has taken a large stake in the company after the big drop on earnings, he says:
“The opportunity to acquire Netflix at an attractive valuation emerged when investors reacted negatively to the recent quarter’s subscriber growth and management’s short-term guidance,” Ackman said in the letter. “Netflix’s substantial stock price decline was further exacerbated by recent market volatility.”
I like his thinking here with the stock cut in half. But it definitely has some risks as subscriber growth slows down and the cost to acquire customers rises.
What Does the NFLX Stock Chart Say?
After breaking out of that 1-year range and hitting new highs, it’s been straight down for NFLX.
Look at that RSI if you want to see an oversold stock. By itself, that doesn’t mean it will go up. But it does mean people are bailing on the stock.
The MACD is also crushed.
I think your range here is the Covid lows near $290 and the $460 break.
Options Activity in NFLX Stock
The NFLX January 28th $400 Calls is seeing a ton of action today. Buyer stepped in right in the morning trying to catch a big rebound with the Ackman news.
If you were fast enough, these doubled from 9:30am to 10:15am. They then lost 70% in the next 30 minutes as traders tried to sell their Calls.
Along with the Call selling, put buying picked up as well.
If you want to play NFLX with Ackman, I suspect you will need to be a bit more longer-term and definitely need to see another earnings report.
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UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY TSLA STOCK
TSLA Chart Looks Weak. Buy at THIS Level.
TSLA crushed numbers yesterday yet the stock is under pressure as the company offered limited 2022 guidance, a longer ramp for supply-chain issues to clear up, and no new EV introductions this year.
Yesterday, we gave a 1-standard deviation range of $843.50 and $1,056.50. It looks like it is trying to hold that today.
What Does the TSLA Stock Chart Say?
There’s a lot to digest in that TSLA chart.
The stock is clearly weak as it breaks the $900 level we’ve been watching.
It trades in the lower range of the channel we spotted.
It’s under the 50dma, which is starting to turn lower.
The RSI is not yet oversold.
The MACD is making a new low with price.
And lastly, volume is nothing to write home about.
The Bulls will try to support the 200dma at $814. But I’d rather wait until the stock gets above $900 to take a stab at buying the upside.
Options Activity in TSLA Stock
TSLA options volume are active in the weeklies. You can see the battle ground form around the 50,000 Call options at the $900 Call strike and 70,000 Put options at the $850 strike.
The RR$ for the puts is $814 and for the calls it’s $927.
Take your pick, but I like how it’s being played considering a possible breakdown and then back above the $9000 level to draw traders back in.
My best guess is that it ends in between and decides to make a move next week.
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