It's an understatement to say this market is strong.
Goldman continues to press the notion that we go straight up into year-end.
I am not going to fight the tape or Goldman Sachs.
As you’ll read, the data they found and the logic they use is compelling.
These S&P numbers are incredible!
But how many of those years had the same macro backdrop that we see today?
Remember, numbers are just numbers. So, be careful.
As the market makes a big jump and then grinds higher, it becomes harder to find great risk reward.
Be patient and pick your spots.
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY
1. TSLA Exploding Higher. What’s the Target?
2. Forget Autonomous Driving, Look at THIS!
3. Is PINS Management Pressing Their Luck?
Let’s get started...
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY TSLA STOCK
TSLA Exploding Higher. What’s the Target?
In addition, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jones hiked his TSLA price target to $1,200 from $900 and had some bullish comments this morning:
“The next 12 months can demonstrate Tesla’s manufacturing leadership, a step change in costs/complexity and higher growth in the vehicle user base. Our $1,200 price target implies roughly ½ the company’s growth target, a ‘constrained’ China and virtually no autonomy… The combination of better-than-expected growth and margins under difficult industrial circumstances gives us an opportunity to narrow the gap in our forecasts to management’s long-term targets.
Greater sales, more installed base… more services revenue… The compounding element to the growth of the car parc [Tesla’s user base] cannot be overstated.
We believe that the market is underestimating Tesla’s ability to bring to market breakthrough innovations in vehicle design and manufacturing. We believe Tesla is uniquely positioned to push the boundaries at the epicenter of a manufacturing change in auto making.”
It’s hard to get a much better endorsement than that. Unless, of course, it’s coming from Cathie Wood and she’s talking $3,000.
The stock is hitting all-time highs today.
What Does the TSLA Stock Chart Say?
After breaking through that flag on the chart, TSLA stock has been bid.
The stock is breaking out to new highs today with a gap higher on good volume.
You can’t be short here in good size, it’s just too dangerous.
Bears will likely press if the stock gets below $900 on good volume.
For some resistance (maybe), I’d look at $1050.
Options Activity in TSLA Stock
Options activity is exploding in TSLA today. At midday, there are over 1 million weekly options trading and over 2 million options in total. I suspect this is closing in on a record for total premium trading hands.
The TSLA October 29th $950 Calls through the $1,100 Calls are seeing huge volumes. The Risk-Reward Breakeven levels range from 1,015 to 1,145, suggesting a move towards that $1,050 level and higher…
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY XPEV STOCK
Forget Autonomous Driving, Look at THIS!
As TSLA sales hum along, another company is raising the bar. Forget about driverless cars, XPEV wants to own the skies:
“Chinese electric-vehicle startup Xpeng introduced a flying car over the weekend, which the company says it plans to mass produce by 2024.”
I stopped reading after the first paragraph as I am still trying to grasp the driverless car thing. On that front, XPEV did announce some new updates and milestones for its semi-autonomous driving system at their 2021 TECH DAY.
The stock is responding:
What Does the XPEV Stock Chart Say?
Apparently, the market likes the news.
XPEV is trying to breakout through this $48 level. I don’t see why it can’t. Remember, TSLA is the lead EV horse. If that’s breaking out, you must look at the universe of EV cars.
A move higher probably gets you to $58-60 range pretty quickly.
The options seem to corroborate that story.
Options Activity in XPEV Stock
There’s unusual options activity in XPEV front week options. The XPEV October 29th $50 Calls have traded 12,000x. Clearly, they are focused on a potential break out in the making.
In addition, the XPEV November 19th $55 Calls have also traded over 14,000x. The Risk-Reward Breakeven price there is $61.43, so they are targeting closer to $63-65.
Earnings are due November 11th.
Breakout or breakdown… What do you think???
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UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY PINS STOCK
Is PINS Management Pressing Their Luck?
PINS is getting rocked today as PayPal made a statement on its website simply stating that they are:
“…not pursuing an acquisition of Pinterest at this time.”
That doesn’t mean they weren’t last week.
The price action says it all.
What Does the PINS Stock Chart Say?
This is an interesting situation.
The last earnings call was a disaster as management gave the listener no confidence in the direction of the stock. It was either one of two things: they were lowering expectations to beat them; or, things were deteriorating faster than they could imagine and they were losing control of producing any type of forecasts.
By late-September, PINS stock was breaking down through $52.50, a key support level.
In early-October, some unusual options activity on the call side started popping up.
We know what happened next. The issue is what happens now?
Essentially, we are right back to where we were in early October. Except now, the shorts got crushed, which means the lower bid in the stock has been reduced.
This heightens risk. Can we see the $30s???
Given the options flow, the market doesn’t seem too worried about that.
Options Activity in PINS Stock
Call options are trading 2 to 1 vs Put Options. There’s a lot of upside call selling as you could imagine that is moving down strikes closer to where the stock currently trades. In particular, the PINS October 29th $52 Calls have been bought as traders look for a bounce.
Earnings are on Wednesday, and it will be interesting to hear management’s tone on the call.
I suspect that PYPL management saw the earnings numbers and believes it gave a healthy bid.
The leak combined with the market’s reaction to their stock probably made them frustrated, which made it easier for them to walk away.
This made me think…
Is PINS management too glossy-eyed to see the punishment they’ll receive if their earnings report is bad?
It looks like they passed on MSFT… and now PYPL.
The market my decide to pass on them.
We’ll see Wednesday.
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