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Winning Picks Premium offers an exclusive VIP service tailored for sophisticated investors who value the in-depth research, careful thought, and extensive experience behind every Trade Idea.

It's designed for those who recognize that success in options trading seldom comes from a single transaction. Instead, it's the robust process underpinning the generation of Trade Ideas that truly drives success.

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. No trading strategy is risk free. Trading and investing involve substantial risk, and you may lose the entire amount of your principal investment or more. You should trade or invest only “risk capital” - money you can afford to lose. Trading and investing is not appropriate for everyone. We urge you to conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice from your personal financial adviser or investment broker before making any investment decision.

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Trade Idea #558

August 11, 2022

Trade Idea: SPY $419.99 (S&P500 ETF)

Buy August 29th $415 Puts $4.40
Sell August 19th $408 Puts $1.12

TI SPY Stock chart Winning Picks 081122

The S&P500 just made a 50% retracement from the 5.5 month high/low range in just 8 weeks.

And what a difference 8 weeks make when looking at the Open Interest board.

I went on the Open Interest Tool and clicked on every expiration for the rest of 2023 including Wednesday’s expiration. I then clicked “Chart.” The following graph pops up, which gives me a look at where the bodies (dead & alive) lie:

TI SPY OI 1 chart Winning Picks 081122
TI SPY OI 2 chart Winning Picks 081122

You can see the massive amounts of Puts per strike starting at the $330 level all the way up to the $400 level, where there is ~500,000 Puts. Even at the $410 Put you get close to 200k and another 100k at the $420 strike.

The market is like water. It follows the least resistance.

Puts are resistance on the way down.

They are a good part of the reason the market has gone up so fast.

Now, you can’t see on the chart, but there are about 20,000 Puts at each $5 intervals in the August 19th expiration between $410 and $425.

Jackson Hole

The next big known event is Jackson Hole on August 25-27th, after that expiration.

I want to make sure we have something on for that week. So, I was curious about the Open Interest after next week’s expiration and September 2nd. This is how it looks:

TI SPY OI 3 chart Winning Picks 081122

This looks much different that the first chart. You can see that there is very little going on until you get to the $400 level.

Again, this never means the “SPY WILL DROP.”
It only means that the “SPY COULD DROP QUICKLY.”

First, we need a “turn.” And bear markets make it very difficult to catch any/all turns. That is their nature.

The Trade

When I did the SPY $405 Put Spread a couple weeks ago, I mentioned the case for SPY $419-$420. We are here.

It’s incredibly important not to miss these Put entries that allow us to jump in with Calls. I missed a quick opening in April and it cost me.

Here’s the trade that makes sense with SPY $420:

Buy 1 August 29th $415 Puts $4.40
Sell 1 August 19th $408 Puts $1.12

Net Debit = $3.28

The Target Stock Price Range is $400-$405.

Futures are up overnight and there are economic numbers tomorrow that can push the SPY up further.

If SPY opens $422, then you can move the strikes to $417 and $410.

If SPY is $425 then $420 and $413 would be great. Move up the strikes to get that $3.25 range on price for a $7 spread.

  Note: The SPY opened up near $423. We entered the $418-$411 at $3.25  

  ***UPDATE: This trade idea went up 417%.  

GREAT OPTIONS TRADE IDEAS

Consistently Reaching 100% Returns

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Satisfaction Guarantee 100%

Incredible Guarantee!

I'm so confident in my ability to help you achieve your long term goals that I am willing to make you an incredible Guarantee. For Annual Members Only, I guarantee delivering you 50 trades that reach triple-digit positive returns (greater or equal to 100%) from my published price limit over the course of your 1 year membership. That averages to almost 1 per week. If I don't reach that limit then you can simply email me and I will give you the next year for free. It's that simple!

The Results Are In...

4th Quarter 2023 Results
Oct. 1st - Dec. 31st

28 Trade Ideas were given during this period with 19 reaching Triple-Digit Returns, or 68%. One Trade Idea is still pending. Of the 9 Trade Ideas that did not reach 100%, 6 of them were Puts.  

+1,351%   TSM Calls
   +738%   IOVA Calls
   +525%   NVO Calls
   +480%   OSTK Call Spreads
   +449%   UBER Calls
   +408%   INTC Calls
   +250%   SPY Put Spreads
   +212%   AEO Calls
   +191%   JPM Call Spreads
   +154%   MGM Calls
   +150%   PYPL Calls
   +132%   MGM Calls
   +129%   LVS Calls
   +120%   GLD Call Spreads
   +115%   KVUE Call Spreads
   +111%   VRT Call Spreads
   +110%   INTC Put Spreads
   +108%   MGM Calls
   +100%   AFRM Calls

Winning Picks Premium
Trade Idea #558

August 11, 2022

Trade Idea: SPY $419.99 (S&P500 ETF)

Buy August 29th $415 Puts $4.40
Sell August 19th $408 Puts $1.12

TI SPY Stock chart Winning Picks 081122

The S&P500 just made a 50% retracement from the 5.5 month high/low range in just 8 weeks.

And what a difference 8 weeks make when looking at the Open Interest board.

I went on the Open Interest Tool and clicked on every expiration for the rest of 2023 including Wednesday’s expiration. I then clicked “Chart.”

The following graph pops up, which gives me a look at where the bodies (dead & alive) lie:

TI SPY OI 1 chart Winning Picks 081122
TI SPY OI 2 chart Winning Picks 081122

You can see the massive amounts of Puts per strike starting at the $330 level all the way up to the $400 level, where there is ~500,000 Puts. Even at the $410 Put you get close to 200k and another 100k at the $420 strike.

The market is like water. It follows the least resistance.

Puts are resistance on the way down.

They are a good part of the reason the market has gone up so fast.

Now, you can’t see on the chart, but there are about 20,000 Puts at each $5 intervals in the August 19th expiration between $410 and $425.

Jackson Hole

The next big known event is Jackson Hole on August 25-27th, after that expiration.

I want to make sure we have something on for that week. So, I was curious about the Open Interest after next week’s expiration and September 2nd. This is how it looks:

TI SPY OI 3 chart Winning Picks 081122

This looks much different that the first chart. You can see that there is very little going on until you get to the $400 level.

Again, this never means the “SPY WILL DROP.”

It only means that the “SPY COULD DROP QUICKLY.”

First, we need a “turn.” And bear markets make it very difficult to catch any/all turns. That is their nature.

The Trade

When I did the SPY $405 Put Spread a couple weeks ago, I mentioned the case for SPY $419-$420. We are here.

It’s incredibly important not to miss these Put entries that allow us to jump in with Calls. I missed a quick opening in April and it cost me.

Here’s the trade that makes sense with SPY $420:

Buy 1 August 29th $415 Puts $4.40
Sell 1 August 19th $408 Puts $1.12

Net Debit = $3.28

The Target Stock Price Range is $400-$405.

Futures are up overnight and there are economic numbers tomorrow that can push the SPY up further.

If SPY opens $422, then you can move the strikes to $417 and $410.

If SPY is $425 then $420 and $413 would be great. Move up the strikes to get that $3.25 range on price for a $7 spread.

  Note: The SPY opened up near $423. We entered the $418-$411 at $3.25  


GREAT OPTIONS TRADE IDEAS

Consistently Reaching 100% Returns

Winning Picks Premium Logo
Satisfaction Guarantee 100%

Incredible Guarantee!

I'm so confident in my ability to help you achieve your long term goals that I am willing to make you an incredible Guarantee. For Annual Members Only, I guarantee delivering you 50 trades that reach triple-digit positive returns (greater or equal to 100%) from my published price limit over the course of your 1 year membership. That averages to almost 1 per week. If I don't reach that limit then you can simply email me and I will give you the next year for free. It's that simple!

The Results Are In...

4th Quarter 2023 Results
Oct. 1st - Dec. 31st

28 Trade Ideas were given during this period with 19 reaching Triple-Digit Returns, or 68%. One Trade Idea is still pending. Of the 9 Trade Ideas that did not reach 100%, 6 of them were Puts.  

+1,351%   TSM Calls
   +738%   IOVA Calls
   +525%   NVO Calls
   +480%   OSTK Call Spreads
   +449%   UBER Calls
   +408%   INTC Calls
   +250%   SPY Put Spreads
   +212%   AEO Calls
   +191%   JPM Call Spreads
   +154%   MGM Calls
   +150%   PYPL Calls
   +132%   MGM Calls
   +129%   LVS Calls
   +120%   GLD Call Spreads
   +115%   KVUE Call Spreads
   +111%   VRT Call Spreads
   +110%   INTC Put Spreads
   +108%   MGM Calls
   +100%   AFRM Calls

OptionsGeek Learn How to Trade Options Logo2

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