It’s too easy to get caught up on a few individual names that are whipping around.
In general, the market isn’t moving that much. We had a steady increase for almost 18 days in a row that took us up 8%.
Today, we are simply down 1.2% from the All-Time Highs!
A 50% retracement from the highs would drop us about $18 on the SPY, or $452-453.
Right near the September high!
This would all be normal behavior.
It may not feel normal, but it IS normal.
Here are today's TOP3...
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY
1. It’s OK to Love Bitcoin and Not Hate Gold
2. Should We Avoid Chinese Stocks at All Costs?
3. The Best Defense is a Good Offense
Let’s get started...
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY GOLD STOCK
It’s OK to Love Bitcoin and Not Hate Gold
Yes, everyone is going after the crypto for that inflation hedge. I get it.
But don’t forget about gold… you know, that yellow rock which has been the inflation hedge over centuries.
I know, it’s different this time.
Either way, Gold and gold stocks are quietly trying to make a move here.
Here’s GOLD stock.
What Does the GOLD Stock Chart Say?
I can’t say this looks great.
GOLD stock has been trending lower in this massive consolidation. Keep in mind, GOLD stock was $11.50 in the summer of 2019.The bright spot is that the commodity is that the commodity is doing better as it tries to break through today.
GOLD stock is above the 50dma and coming up on the 200dma.
The $20.50 level looks like it can be important here to get it moving higher.
Options flow has picked up in the name.
Options Activity in GOLD Stock
There’s unusual options activity in GOLD options across most expirations. Specifically, the buy of 5,000 GOLD December $22 Calls caught my eye right out of the open.
The Risk-Reward Breakeven Price is $26.37 there. Notice, that this means the buyer is expecting GOLD stock to break that consolidation triangle you see on the chart.
The risk-reward in gold looks good and that’s why Winning Picks Premium Members put on some gold calls a few weeks ago. I am looking for a similar type of “breakout” move in the commodity, which would take up all gold stocks.
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY BILI STOCK
Should We Avoid Chinese Stocks at All Costs?
Old news… China stocks have gotten destroyed.
The YouTube of China, BILI, is one of them. It was down 60% before making a small comeback.
With earnings coming up next week, I thought we should take a look at the name now.
The chart looks interesting.
What Does the BILI Stock Chart Say?
No doubt, the BILI chart is in a downtrend. And while I don’t like buying stocks in a downtrend… sometimes options might make sense.
So, while the BILI chart looks negative there is a positive MACD diversion and a 5-week flag forming, which are slight positives.
There’s also some UOA.
Options Activity in BILI Stock
I wouldn’t classify this as significant UOA here. However, BILI doesn’t usually trade that much.
With earnings on the 17th, let’s take a look at how the options are priced for the event.
The Risk-Reward Breakeven Price for the BILI November 19th $78 Puts are $70.89. For the Calls, we can take the average RR$ from the $85 and $90 strikes (since they jump in strike by $5) to be approximately $97.16.
There’s a buyer of the $90s today, which indicates that he is looking for a move back above the 200dma, near $102 -$104.
I see the potential.
It’s on my radar. Keep an eye on the flow over the next week.
UNUSUAL OPTIONS ACTIVITY PG STOCK
The Best Defense is a Good Offense
Inflation popped up again in a big way on today’s scorecard. Whether it’s transitory or not, it’s here right now.
Defensive names with pricing power (meaning they can raise prices and pass the cost to consumer) are bid.
PG is a defensive name that has pricing power.
And while the S&P500 is having a little trouble, PG is bid.
Take a look.
What Does the PG Stock Chart Say?
PG stock chart looks good.
You can see a clear trend line off the Covid bottom.
It’s above the 50 and 200 dma.
And now, it’s flirting with a breakout.
Options Activity in PG Stock
There’s unusual options activity in PG near-term options. Someone bought 19,000 PG November $150 Calls and paid around $0.55.
The Risk-Reward Breakeven Price is $152.57 here, which would indicate a clear breakout.
The question is: Why November 26th?
I’ll let you try to dig a little there. I am not quite sure just yet.
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